Timeline - 14th of September the venerable firm Merrill Lynch gets into unthinkable trouble – they fail. Not really – they got saved in a fire sale. Still ugly for such a long standing giant.

10 days later – Local Merrill Lynch economists - David Wolf & Carolyn Kwan, predict a mortgage meltdown will whack the Canadian real estate market, the magnitude of which would equal the events in the US.

Now on a sunny day, I’m told I can see far enough to find the storm clouds. I call it forward looking radar. What Msr Wolf and Mdm Kwan did was either a sour grape approach to their new, or as yet, undetermined employment, or just plain trying to join an alarmist bandwagon a tad too late.

Silly goofs, while I think we here in La-Belle Canada think ourselves too invincible, David & Carolyn fail to understand that the mortgage meltdown was precipitated by Money Traders – the poor homeowners fell into the soup after.

Not to replay the facts, stats or arguments here, just only to say – hey David, hey Carolyn – did you see the fundamental differences?
If risk had been priced in, the economy could have handled Homeowners that got whacked. BUT the economy could not handle the FI’s that leveraged, derivatized, swapped and put 125% of the face value of mortgage pools out at bonused rates “cause it was just so damned attractive”. And the math, if it ever could be figured out, which I’m sure won’t happen, then it’s likely a good bet that the economists wrote solid opinions as to why a bundle of 100 million of mortgage backed securities ended up selling for 150 or even 200 million due to what? Salesmanship, confusion or just being too tired to care.

Yes the Canadian market will likely have price adjustments –but not of the magnitude you unhappy birds suggest. The trigger to our local markets will be as in the rest of the world – general consumer confidence. The driver could be employment levels – and if they take a hit, well then it won’t be mortgage meltdown – it would’ve been economic.

To be fair, its been tough to see days ahead, never mind months, but David and Carolyn are late, late in the game and wrong side of the 49th.

Enthralled. First there was the Obama Acceptance Speech – yes he delivers well, - still no Trudeau or Reagan. Of most interest was the brilliance at the assembly and cadence for each topic – or more correctly “Voter Segment” that he touched. His speech ended with a touching quote, but what surprised me, was that he actually used the Power Close – about half way through instead. Brilliant construction – only they left part of the roof on the main floor.

I couldn’t wait to hear how the McCain Team would position the response. It could be a tremendous study in respond, attack, gain favor. Not sure if after the storm and the amended Republican Convention format that it all fell apart, or if the construction just not great from the start – but McCain's Acceptance Speech said little of a well played response to Obama’s strong opening night performance.

And last night I fell asleep to the murmurs of the “great debate”. Yes today the Pundits are saying volley, attack, joust, avoiding direct hits on each other…but landing well placed blows. HUH? Hey they had to say something other than limp. I awoke to replay after replay. I found last night’s performance a polite discussion, no, not even as good as a discussion – more a ‘plea’ from the podium. High School debating teams have had more spark, brilliance and intrigue. Each candidate for much of the evening went eye-to-eye with the Moderator – not even direct to the camera – let alone, each other! Witness a Moderator that asked more than a half dozen times – please respond to Mr. McCain, please address that to Mr. Obama, please, please and please.

Leadership debates are supposed to give a glimpse into the ‘character’ of the Candidate. In truth what we want to see is much like a car race – the impact – that moment. Bush looking at his watch, Trudeau stepping out from behind a glass podium and then Joe Clark taking a step back in retreat…oh yes Marshall McLuhan.

Yes, yes I know, we’re not supposed to say we’re there for the knock-out punch…but remember back to the movie Grand Prix when Eva Marie Saint stepped from the ambulance and quite literally tarred the Media with...”here, this is what you want, this is really why you come to the races…” Well in a word “yes” I was there to see diplomatic attack and rebuttal…not for the Sport of it, but to learn from what should be the pinnacle of style…a machine assembled behind each of two men who wanted to lead the free world….before the economic hobbling which will redefine much of what we today call…Leadership.