The real estate market has changed, and continues to change - no kidding? As the world rode the wave of press releases about increasing home prices up, we all smiled and felt warm and tingly inside. The Real Estate Industry collectively trumpeted these facts of splendour - more, more, up, up ...

The US has taken an obvious lead in market value and activity decline. NAR, the collective voice of Realtors in the US, long ago recognized the need for straight talk – ‘market in change’, then finally in reverse – decline – this was open transparent admission and reporting.

CREA just invented a new standard. Claiming “House prices are skewed” CREA just reported the Weighted National Average Price for Sales on the Multiple Listing Service. Baaaad timing. In a world looking for transparency – who are these wizards of imagined standards? Hey people up there – look to NAR …lets report the facts so they are measurable, comparable…twisted any other way, your leadership as the credible source of information may in today’s new world fade.

Today as always – “average” is just that, “average information”. For exceptional information – hopefully people will rely on their trusted full-time professional that will share information as facts and trends instead of – sugar coated, credibility busting – invented terms to hide the obvious – we live in new and changing times.

In Ontario 65,000 Provincial Civil Servants are up for Contract Renewal this year and our Government’s opening offer is 12% - that’s 3% a year. Now pardon me, and maybe even forgive me – but a question to the Teachers Union – how is 3% a below par offer?

I’m astounded that some Government negotiator has placed a higher amount than private industry has enjoyed as an ‘opening offer’ – cause we all know they’ll need to move, even if just for goodwill.

I as well am not happy about the economic bail-out going to Bay Street chums, but how does the Teachers Union see an above the board, fabulous offer as – being asked to carry the new financial hardships on their back?

Most of us will roll back, this year, next and even maybe the next/ Net neutral would be fantastic….it’s going to be an interesting year as we see if sulking unions with in-tact pensions, protected holidays and more security than is left in the shambles of Industry take it [us] to the wall and if Mr. McGuinty possesses the same gut determination as former President Regan “go back to work, or you’re all fired”.

A perspective for Canadians

EVENTS –
The past weeks have been a roller coaster ride on the stock markets. Even economists & pundits – the “wizards’ are in new territory. Some publicly admitting – they “just don’t know”.

WHAT WE DO KNOW –
- Banks are pricing ‘risk’ into their rates so mortgage rates have been spiking. In Canada the Central Bank was surprised that the Big 5 Banks went a only quarter point down when the Central Bank went down a half point. Risk based pricing, so absent from the economy is back. But it will seek ‘right’ levels that we were previously used to.
- Governments around the globe will be saddled with debt from their cash injections to help manage the ‘markets’. So it will be in each government’s ‘best interest’ to promote a low rate policy.
- Fears of Inflation do not seem to be a near-term concern. So rising rates are an illogical presumption.
- And High Rates compete with the Stock Market for where investors will park their cash – and these days the stock markets need all the help they can get. YES low rates seem in the “best interest” of all.
IF higher rates are around the corner, its almost a good thing – as it will have meant the bailout worked, the economy is roaring ahead, and higher rates were brought in to cool things out…now that would be a change in headlines.
GOT A VRM Mortgage? Stop. Think.
In this time of change - Uncertainty breeds fear. Do not hastily exit an advantageous mortgage by listening to whispers of “lock-in-now” before mortgage rates climb. YES – if someone you know has a VRM mortgage with, for example a five year term, guaranteed to be half below prime – then why lock-in? It may well be a knee-jerk reaction to a rumor picked up by the Media last week, that said – “If you have a VRM, you can’t lock in fast enough”.
SILVER LINING –
And the fresh, international approach, (which seems to have begun in Europe), to planning and policy (the bailout) growing should ultimately calm “market turmoil”. Decisions today should be made with long-term views.
NEXT –
The US Dollar will likely not be the only International Benchmark currency. Likely a ‘pool’ of world currencies will emerge in what has finally been recognized, and is desperately being reorganized as one giant system called the “new global economy” - a now old term, that is finally about to reach reality - maybe. Funny how crisis can promt action.

WAY WAY BACK in March of this year I cheered then Chairman of AIG, as he lamented and warned of Mark-to-Market take downs. I chickened out in June and pulled the story - BUT I repost it here and now - it was right then and its right now, In Canada new standards announced Oct 16 - relieve Canadian Banks from the onerous pressure of Mark-to-Market. And AIG is here, but gone - some of it stupidity from their British branch, some if the famed necessity of Mark-to-Market accounting.

BELOW are my original comments from March of 08.


The Sheriff of Wall Street aka “the Spitz” rode his white stallion up and down the backs of us all. He built a modern day McCarthyism, Salem Which Hunts – fear, fear of being accused of not having enough ‘compliance’. We began to look in closets for ‘compliance’ and under pillows – like it was an object. Imagine the shame of it being said “you don’t have compliance’. The Spitz it is revealed didn’t quite have it either – but so long as it looked like there was ‘compliance’ it would be such a good world, so much better.

And then a new pet grew called ‘Sarb-Ox’. A wild animal – that was supposed to cull the beast of ‘compliance’ solved by the boogey bear of - disclosure. And some entities (corporations) finally said “too much”. They said it quietly of course for fear of The Spitz. But quietly some of them moved to London and other exchanges of the world to avoid the “Sarb-Ox’ beast.

Its coming undone – even with Sarb-Ox still on the loose, not as wild, and now more tame – but still its come undone. And in the midst – funny enough so too did the “Spitz”.

Well congrats and Bravo to Martin Sullivan of AIG – I dun’o if he’s right or wrong as far as his firms reporting goes – but he’s opened the floor to the question….is the reporting right? Is the disclosure working, is it real – does it need adjustment? So does it? Are we going to be brave enough to enter the dialogue?

Before we answer – remember, is was America that put “anti-bribery legislation into place” – forced and forcing themselves to take a moral high-ground. So seemingly strict it tied the hands of US companies operating overseas…seemed good at the time…BUT there was an unseen consequence…at the Xerox office in Cairo – the ‘company’ paid the local phone repairman a tip, a stipend of about $15. per month to keep Xerox connected – this was, under the new ‘law’ considered – illegal. Xerox Cairo stopped illegally bribing the phone repair man to keep their service at operational levels and poof, so went the phone service – gone.

Reporting, disclosure, transparency – all good. But is there really any of it – or is it fog, that only is conveniently lifted by “Spitz” like fella’s to expose when it best suits ‘their’ needs?

Lets encourage Sullivan, let’s engage the question – if the transparency that’s been built, that’s torn down so many, was so great – how’d this mess happen?

Timeline - 14th of September the venerable firm Merrill Lynch gets into unthinkable trouble – they fail. Not really – they got saved in a fire sale. Still ugly for such a long standing giant.

10 days later – Local Merrill Lynch economists - David Wolf & Carolyn Kwan, predict a mortgage meltdown will whack the Canadian real estate market, the magnitude of which would equal the events in the US.

Now on a sunny day, I’m told I can see far enough to find the storm clouds. I call it forward looking radar. What Msr Wolf and Mdm Kwan did was either a sour grape approach to their new, or as yet, undetermined employment, or just plain trying to join an alarmist bandwagon a tad too late.

Silly goofs, while I think we here in La-Belle Canada think ourselves too invincible, David & Carolyn fail to understand that the mortgage meltdown was precipitated by Money Traders – the poor homeowners fell into the soup after.

Not to replay the facts, stats or arguments here, just only to say – hey David, hey Carolyn – did you see the fundamental differences?
If risk had been priced in, the economy could have handled Homeowners that got whacked. BUT the economy could not handle the FI’s that leveraged, derivatized, swapped and put 125% of the face value of mortgage pools out at bonused rates “cause it was just so damned attractive”. And the math, if it ever could be figured out, which I’m sure won’t happen, then it’s likely a good bet that the economists wrote solid opinions as to why a bundle of 100 million of mortgage backed securities ended up selling for 150 or even 200 million due to what? Salesmanship, confusion or just being too tired to care.

Yes the Canadian market will likely have price adjustments –but not of the magnitude you unhappy birds suggest. The trigger to our local markets will be as in the rest of the world – general consumer confidence. The driver could be employment levels – and if they take a hit, well then it won’t be mortgage meltdown – it would’ve been economic.

To be fair, its been tough to see days ahead, never mind months, but David and Carolyn are late, late in the game and wrong side of the 49th.

Enthralled. First there was the Obama Acceptance Speech – yes he delivers well, - still no Trudeau or Reagan. Of most interest was the brilliance at the assembly and cadence for each topic – or more correctly “Voter Segment” that he touched. His speech ended with a touching quote, but what surprised me, was that he actually used the Power Close – about half way through instead. Brilliant construction – only they left part of the roof on the main floor.

I couldn’t wait to hear how the McCain Team would position the response. It could be a tremendous study in respond, attack, gain favor. Not sure if after the storm and the amended Republican Convention format that it all fell apart, or if the construction just not great from the start – but McCain's Acceptance Speech said little of a well played response to Obama’s strong opening night performance.

And last night I fell asleep to the murmurs of the “great debate”. Yes today the Pundits are saying volley, attack, joust, avoiding direct hits on each other…but landing well placed blows. HUH? Hey they had to say something other than limp. I awoke to replay after replay. I found last night’s performance a polite discussion, no, not even as good as a discussion – more a ‘plea’ from the podium. High School debating teams have had more spark, brilliance and intrigue. Each candidate for much of the evening went eye-to-eye with the Moderator – not even direct to the camera – let alone, each other! Witness a Moderator that asked more than a half dozen times – please respond to Mr. McCain, please address that to Mr. Obama, please, please and please.

Leadership debates are supposed to give a glimpse into the ‘character’ of the Candidate. In truth what we want to see is much like a car race – the impact – that moment. Bush looking at his watch, Trudeau stepping out from behind a glass podium and then Joe Clark taking a step back in retreat…oh yes Marshall McLuhan.

Yes, yes I know, we’re not supposed to say we’re there for the knock-out punch…but remember back to the movie Grand Prix when Eva Marie Saint stepped from the ambulance and quite literally tarred the Media with...”here, this is what you want, this is really why you come to the races…” Well in a word “yes” I was there to see diplomatic attack and rebuttal…not for the Sport of it, but to learn from what should be the pinnacle of style…a machine assembled behind each of two men who wanted to lead the free world….before the economic hobbling which will redefine much of what we today call…Leadership.

You know them, they know you and you want their business and their referrals. You're marketing to them. Taking a position on their radar. A house on their street goes up for sale, call them, tell them how much. Yes they've seen the sign - and maybe even before you - but tell them how much....do you want to be the source or not?

Then it sells ...tell them again. Be first. Ask yourself -- If they're not getting the news from you - then from who?

Don't kid yourself, ready to sell or not - everybody likes to know 'how much?'

One of the few. Adieu so long. Your challenge to Mark to Market brave, but not heard or sustainable as a "call to thought". Months, years ahead will judge by value of what was kept, as opposed to written off. Smart, Lucky or Wrong?

Catch this. A print ad of almost half page in the Globe & Mail – suggesting business can be made better if restaurants print their menus in large type. Huh?
The reader is directed back to a web site www.accesson.ca – where the type is typically small web sized – when it really could have been larger, as the ad after all – suggests.
Oh, and it has light-green type on a white background – tough to read or what?
And back to the ad itself – it wasn’t even correctly sized to fit the newspaper page on which it sat.
Corner tag could’ve read: ‘genius at work” (with your tax dollars).

The Sheriff of Wall Street aka “the Spitz” rode his white stallion up and down the backs of us all. He built a modern day McCarthyism, Salem Which Hunts – fear, fear of being accused of not having enough ‘compliance’. We began to look in closets for ‘compliance’ and under pillows – like it was an object. Imagine the shame of it being said “you don’t have compliance’. The Spitz it is revealed didn’t quite have it either – but so long as it looked like there was ‘compliance’ it would be such a good world, so much better.

And then a new pet grew called ‘Sarb-Ox’. A wild animal – that was supposed to cull the beast of ‘compliance’ solved by the boogey bear of - disclosure. And some entities (corporations) finally said “too much”. They said it quietly of course for fear of The Spitz. But quietly some of them moved to London and other exchanges of the world to avoid the “Sarb-Ox’ beast.

Its coming undone – even with Sarb-Ox still on the loose, not as wild, and now more tame – but still its come undone. And in the midst – funny enough so too did the “Spitz”.

Well congrats and Bravo to Martin Sullivan of AIG – I dun’o if he’s right or wrong as far as his firms reporting goes – but he’s opened the floor to the question….is the reporting right? Is the disclosure working, is it real – does it need adjustment? So does it? Are we going to be brave enough to enter the dialogue?

Before we answer – remember, is was America that put “anti-bribery legislation into place” – forced and forcing themselves to take a moral high-ground. So seemingly strict it tied the hands of US companies operating overseas…seemed good at the time…BUT there was an unseen consequence…at the Xerox office in Cairo – the ‘company’ paid the local phone repairman a tip, a stipend of about $15. per month to keep Xerox connected – this was, under the new ‘law’ considered – illegal. Xerox Cairo stopped illegally bribing the phone repair man to keep their service at operational levels and poof, so went the phone service – gone.

Reporting, disclosure, transparency – all good. But is there really any of it – or is it fog, that only is conveniently lifted by “Spitz” like fella’s to expose when it best suits ‘their’ needs?

Lets encourage Sullivan, let’s engage the question – if the transparency that’s been built, that’s torn down so many, was so great – how’d this mess happen?

In 2007 Southern Ontario endured a round of Consumer Behavioural Training.

Likely we were being too grouchy about rising gasoline prices. So 'they' took it away. Yes gas stations ran out of gas. First they decided to charge for air…then "they" actually took gas away.

Yes, one small processing refinery in Ontario had an explosion, and gas supplies at that one brand went thin. Then another brand decided 'hey…its an ideal time to train the consumer that it’s a privilege to get gas, then they’ll stop grouching about price'. Scarcity will create fear of loss rather than price bitterness.

And now just so we don’t take for granted, the availability of gasoline, at of all places - a gas station, another ‘shortage’ of the stuff, this time in Western Canada. Yes Consumer Behavioural Training at what may be planned regular intervals.

The new mantra – “Who cares what it costs, at least we can get it.”
Take the heat off cost, by focusing on availability.

..."I just didn't know what else to say."
Robust. Today, a word used to justify any positive buying decision.
As in…”we bought that software package because it was robust”. So I guess - the other packages didn’t work? Or did this one still work, even if misused, or provided with junk data?
More emphatic…”we bought that one because it was the most robust”.
Today it seems, any time someone isn’t sure how or why a corporate buying decision was made re a technology, service or even lettuce – they describe the basis of the rational as:
- it was the most robust software
- it was agreed they had the most robust workers
- their lettuce was just far and above more robust. ( and so was their cabbage)

STUDY Confirms Calendars Work
– but less than a 1% success rate.

1% of Home Sellers found their Listing Agent through a calendar or fridge magnet. Not good news for a career minded sales professional.

The real big news – 41% of Home Sellers did choose their Listing Agent as the result of a Referral from a friend, neighbour or relative.

The NAR survey also confirmed that 41% to 49% of Home Buyers selected their Agent based on a Referral from a friend, neighbour or relative. And oh calendars - zero buyers indicated having found their Agent that way.

Method Used to Find Real Estate Agent
Referred by (or is) a friend, neighbour or relative 41%
Used Agent previously to buy or sell 23%
Visited an open house and met agent 5%
Walked into office or called Duty Agent 4%
Personal contact by an Agent (phone, mail) 4%
Referred through employer or relocation firm 4%
Saw contact info on For Sale/Open House sign 4%
Internet Web site 3%
Direct Mail (newsletter, flyer, postcard) 3%
Referred by another RE Agent or Broker 3%
Newspaper, Yellow Pages, Home Book ad 1%
Advertising Specialty (calendar, magnet etc) 1%
Other 5%

Bottom Line –
If you’re real good at 10 different tasks and really really like bouncing around doing lots and lots of different prospecting then 32% of the time you may do well.

BUT, when you get serious about Referral Marketing 41% of your business will come to you. And yes, by the way while working a Referral Targeted Marketing Program you’ll be securing top-of-mind awareness with previous clients – another 23% of “come to me” business.

Yes – it’s the New Year and you’ve likely just sent out your Calendars. STOP. Look at the stats – is a calendar enough, or just the start? Make 2008 your year for control, growth and stability - commit to a formal marketing plan.

The Bush Administration has a plan to help sub-prime borrowers that are headed for a crash landing. And that has certain folks screaming mad. The claim by these angry critics – is that ‘it punishes responsible folks’ who didn’t over-leverage, who didn’t jump on the bandwagon and join the ‘spending party’.

Anger by reasonable people who didn’t join the credit party, is more just jealousy, or upset at Democracy & Capitalism joining forces. Markets tend to balance and many segments of the US real estate market are now balancing as prices slide and sales activity slows and in some regions crawls. Compounding and perhaps causing the slowdown is in part the reactive problem of/to the sub-prime market. The Administration is not so much protecting homeowners about to get struck by increased rates, as it is trying to balance, or perhaps more bluntly – support the market in attempt to halt the ongoing slide.

Is it fair? No. Is it a good thing in the overall to intercede and hope to moderate a deteriorated situation – yes. It will help to slow the slide, maintain balance. Is it delaying the inevitable? Likely. But some folks will come out the other end and manage the increased debit servicing down the road. And lots of folks in between will reside in a more stable market as the Government of the day works to add some balance, even if only in small measure, to the marketplace. Governments do it every day with other products – money – exchange rates and interest rates, wheat, milk, lumber.

Will certain businesses win as a result – yes. But we’ve all seen that we don’t necessarily win when business looses. In fact when we business is good – we all seem to share.

So is it fair to responsible people? Yes. Be sure - when others ‘survive’ we all do better. Systems that have only winners and losers make it easier to measure – but even the winners can loose…their heads…when the attitude becomes …”let them eat cake!”

Existing Cell Carrier Companies are pooh-poohing the Industry Minister Jim Prentice for opening new ‘wireless air wave bands” that can be bid on ONLY by new entrants to the market. Hooray Jim, way to go!!!

Comments from the existing Cell Carriers:
- “The Canadian Tax Payer is being undersold – as bidding prices would be higher in a - Free-Market bid.” Too bad – the taxpayer is the ‘public’ and the US model proves – force competition and the public wins! – It’s a small federal government revenue loss to stimulate competition – support it! ((Besides the Fed will get funds when they sell off Federally owned real estate to private ownership – cause somehow private ownership can afford a deal that the Feds can’t – but that’s another story))
- “New entrants don’t really want to build a working network – they want to license squat.” Maybe – but there’s two solutions there – think like a property developer – “lights-on clause” use it, or lose it. And besides remember two companies called Fido and Clearnet – owned by the “Boys” today and at relative bargain acquisition costs.
- “But this is unfair to existing “players”. Oh please
- “Oh but how will existing carriers ever afford new technologies for a better Canadian wireless experience?” Somehow I’m just not worried about that - competition usually keeps these advances in-check.

The IPhone isn’t in Canada because of what it would do to existing profitability of cost matrixes – let’s look and give Kudos to Industry Minister Jim Prentice for at least the appearance of giving the landscape new competitive spirits. As the consumer wins, so to does business and business knows it. But it’s a long term win – and today biz is all about short term everything.

National Association of Realtors Conference & Trade Show

Usually a gathering of 18,000 to 22,000 for 3 days of innovation & strength development. This year, 30,000 plus Realtors gathered for the annual event, which yes was bigger - but maybe not better.

There were more learning sessions than any previous conference. Same topics – not quite same-old, same-old but neither were they new or revolutionary.

The trade show was giant. BUT it was missing pizzazz. And no wonder, absent were many of the Mortgage Lenders and US Banks that traditionally set the upside elegance for size and quality of displays. Its not that they don’t like the show or Realtors – many were just out’a money, or out’a business given the recent sub-prime bust. For the past 20 years the best and biggest booths, the best carry bags and the best chachkas were at the bank & mortgage booths. Over fini c’est tout.

Different yes. The take away – a giant myriad of small booths selling all manner of goods and services to sales people, brokers and their assistants. Still lots of vendors wanting to sell magic potions for “da best” web site in the world. Lots of printers supplying business cards, pads and magnetic calendars. A PEEVE of mine – agents send a calendar once each year and call it ‘personal branding’ ahh.... but back to the show.

And the Speakers – yes the motivators and trainers – some have updated their entire line, gone are the cassette tapes now its all on DVDs. Lots of motivation and training available – oh yes. The Motivators are great - it's the floow-through by the attendees of their session that keeps the motivators in business...'yes i'm suggesting a lack of follow-through leads to repeat visits of "...but I need motivation".

Best Educational Session or best New Product of the show – I don’t know. In a year where there’s been such wrenching change – so many firm competitive challenges to ‘access to information’ for both seller and buyer, there was darn little excitement about either change or new opportunity at this year’s conference.

Interesting – there was Trulia, again – friend to the Realtor – selling business exposure opportunities on the web. Trulia - the web, remind you of a story about the spider?

AND ever-present in a small out’a the way booth was Google. In a plain & polite way showing some 'stuff' that helps homebuyers find property better – and how Realtors could ‘maybe’ benefit. Yes – quiet non-descript Google – showing some ideas of how to get you to an address better, faster, more efficiently – remind you about the start of something big?

Wow! What a summer – blew by fast. And now…
Back to school. Back to rush hour. Back to normal.

Same can’t be said for the financial markets – the roller coaster ride continues.

In July, the Investment Bankers of the world recognized that the sub-prime mortgage paper they’d been filling investment portfolios with for years was iffy. And suddenly there was international turmoil – “Liquidity Crisis” became the official term.

More simply, Investment Bankers, nervous about how they leveraged, overleveraged and hedge funded the heck out of the mass mortgage pool amalgamations took notice. They’d “bet on” inflation and economic stability. They discovered their “bets” weren’t doing as well as expected.

The ensuing loss of values was blamed on a deteriorating US Real Estate Market. True enough the market had gone soft in may geographic areas – but the news spread and like most stories of ill – say it loud enough and long enough and actions will follow stories. True, the US real estate market is not right now a picture of prime health. But it’s a big market, and not all areas have experienced a drastic downturn.

The underlying base was an increase or doubling of the number of properties in foreclosure. Given some of the creative mortgages – notably ARMs or Adjustable Rate Mortgages with artificially low interest rates, that ballooned the missing interest onto the principal balance of the mortgage its not a surprise to see ‘affordability hits’ showing an increase across the market. Combine this with ‘rating agencies’ that now face calls of miss-rating, not understanding the risk etc – Investors lost confidence in almost all manner of mortgage money investing.

The attitude toward over-leveraging because of mortgage tax deductibility has often made the US real estate market more susceptible. Keep in mind, tempting financing, foreclosures and ‘walk-aways’ have always been higher, and an accepted component of the US marketplace.

In contrast, the Canadian economy and the real estate market in Canada both continue to steam along, seeming somewhat oblivious to the challenges and market changes in the US. Both sales volumes and prices across Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) reporting areas are statistically powerful. In fact, both CREA and CMHC have recently revised their ’07 forecasts upward – to account for sales increases.

Real estate continues to be a solid, proven long-term investment. When the fear in the US marketplace subsides, buyers will again recognize opportunity and value.

A more rested review of Inman RE Connect San-Fran July 31 - Aug 2

Just back from Real Estate Connect in San Francisco. Billed as a “networking think-tank” it was a gathering of Brokerage CEO’s, Brokers, Salespeople, Web Guru’s, Web Millionaires and Venture Capitalists. It’s become a big show - three years ago it was a get-together of 300 hundred individuals. This year, it welcomed a crowd of 1900.

If we weren’t already convinced that we live in a world of real-time, compressed time, it was certainly clear here. No longer should we see the world as a place of next year’s trends…today, reality is – “present trends” are now. Our world moves at web speed. What used to take months and even years to implement grows now in hours, days and weeks. A business that doesn’t, or can’t keep pace is out of business just as fast.

The new “Phenoms” that are shaking the world of Real Estate Sales: Conglomerators. Essentially these are websites offering listings of every kind, providing sales comps, price trends, real estate Broker listed properties, private sale properties – even properties that are not for sale, but where an owner can put their home out with a “make-me-sell” price.

These “private conglomerators” are already working with millions of dollars in Venture Capital and are already offering a complete array of very sharp resources for both buyers and sellers. All wanting to be viewed as Broker Friendly –it was an interesting Conference as NAR and Zillow sat on the same stage trying to publicly figure, “so where is this meeting of needs”.

For Zillow, Trulia, Home Values.com etc. the model is easy – have the most listings, give the consumer the best and fastest access to value estimates, sales charts and statistics. They do recognize that buyers eventually get confused and want to work with a Professional Realtor to get through the home-buying maze. So, a strong part of their revenue model is to sell “qualified” leads to willing “subscriber” real estate agents.

Change is occurring.

Used to be you placed an ad, hoped for a call, developed a relationship and so the story went. As newspaper ads become less relevant, these new websites are beginning to control and decide who they’ll sell leads to, and how many leads, and on what basis. It becomes a game of luck. No relationship, no affinity, it becomes random chance as a computer chooses which Realtors get the leads to succeed. Blind luck.

What’s it all mean to Realtors? As Dr. Richard Flint said at NAR ’06, “either turn your real estate sales into a Referral Based Business by 2008, or perish.” Did he see what’s going on with the web, or did he foresee the “present trend” of the business in general?

Interesting Times.
July 31 through Aug 3 I was in San Francisco at the Inman News Real Estate Connect event. You remember those 3 days - the sub-prime mess broke out in a public and wild ride manner. What a time to be with the crème-de-la crème of the Real Estate industries Technology Leaders, Dreamers, Observers and Funders - collectively “The Innovators”.

Growing form 300 attendees a few years back to a crowd of 1700 this year I was amazed by the focus on Technology and lack of attention to people, relationships. Yes this was a Venture Capitalist hunting ground. Realtors were the audience and participants – but the action was the Technologists and the Money Guys – all looking to throw cash at, or build the next Google.

A host of home sale sites – Trulia, Zillow even Realtor.com.
Yahhoo was there speaking to their strength in the growing busines of Real Estate Info sites and so was Google. But as usual Google was a quiet, humble and understated player - wanting to say 'we're just playing the part a supportive role in the process. Wink, nod and a smile.

Three best take away key phrases –

- Executive Vice President of NAR on stage with founder of Zillow, who was also the founder of Expedia so he has track record….back to the comment…..fiercely competitive and protective of Realtors – the Exec VP when asked how he felt about Zillow et al, stated that NAR is friends of anybody this is a friend of Realtors.
- At the general assembly a member of the audience stood and asked "So where was NAR during all this reckless mortgage lending, that was flattening the markets?” the sucking-in of air from the awes, was like the noise of a silent vacuum, the following silence - eerie.
- BUT THE BEST might have been at a break out session that ran circles around Referrals and Technology, the Moderator finally asked the Panel …”but what about relationships” they went blank. An odd time to freeze.

THE BIG RAGE of the Conference –
If you’re Selling Real Estate and don’t have a blog – you’ll perish. Interesting I thought. As of February 2007 there were 69.2 million blogs. By early August there were 97.3 million blogs. My gosh there’d be at least a thousand more as a result of this conference.

That’s 97,300,000 plus 1,000 to equal 97,301,000 – so how is someone to find mine? And with so little time, who has time to read it?

San Fran – great hills. Lots of Star Bucks. Tons of relaxed people. Makes Vancouver look tense!
Best shoe store DW ain’t as good as it used to be for selection or price – Macy’s across the street has good deals too – and great selection with some very cool salesguys. GAP there didn’t have black-jeans either and I as sure they started as a Jean Store…anyone else remember that? Oh oh oh and I played with an IPhone – very cool. Rode the cable, walked the wharf and climbed the hills. Yes day one almost knocked me down, out and flat – but then I did it – got to the top – hung there for an hour like it was Everest – yes now I owned the terrain instead of being bound to the lower regions.

so often so much to say...and now with a soapbox on which to stand....silence. Just that. I think i'll drink in the mood...the feeling and then once comfy...